Overview of Trade Growth Trends (2019–2029) with Trump’s Tariffs Impact
- China’s Scale Leadership Under Pressure: China’s forecasted absolute trade volume growth of $939.4B (Rank 1) may drop to $750B–$850B due to a 54% U.S. tariff, though its domestic market and non-U.S. trade could mitigate some losses.
- Emerging Speed Leaders Face Challenges: Cambodia and the Philippines, with forecasted annual growth rates of 9% and 7%, might see reductions to 6–7% and 6%, respectively, due to 49% and 10% U.S. tariffs impacting their export-driven economies.
- India’s Resilience: India’s forecasted $484.0B absolute growth (Rank 3) and 7% annual growth rate might decrease to $435B–$460B and 6–6.5%, respectively, with a 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher), but its diversified markets offer some buffer.
- Southeast Asia’s Mixed Outlook: Viet Nam’s $271.8B absolute growth (Rank 5) could fall to $205B–$230B with a 46% U.S. tariff, while Indonesia and Thailand might see reductions of 5–20% in their forecasted growth due to 10% and higher tariffs.
- Brunei’s Limited Impact: Brunei’s modest $2.6B absolute growth (Rank 119) and 3% annual growth rate might dip to $2.3B–$2.5B and 2–2.5%, respectively, with a 10% U.S. tariff, given its small economic base.
- Mature Economies Slow Further: The United Kingdom, Singapore, and Malaysia, with forecasted annual growth rates of 2–4%, might see reductions to 2–3.5% due to 10% U.S. tariffs and global economic slowdown.
- Myanmar’s Recovery at Risk: Myanmar’s forecasted 5% annual growth rate and $8.3B absolute growth could drop to 3–4% and $4B–$5B, respectively, with a 44% U.S. tariff exacerbating its economic instability.
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Below, I’ve summarized the revised trade growth forecasts for 2024–2029, adjusted for the impact of Trump’s tariffs announced on April 3, 2025. The tables include the original data for 2019–2024, the forecasted rank for 2024–2029, the revised projected growth for 2024–2029, and updated insights for each country.
Scale Ranking: Absolute Trade Volume Growth (in Billions USD)
| Country | Absolute Growth 2019–2024 | Rank 2024–2029 | Forecasted Absolute Growth 2024–2029 (Revised) | Insights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 827.7B | 1 | 750.0B–850.0B | A 54% U.S. tariff may reduce growth, but domestic demand and non-U.S. trade provide resilience. |
| India | 261.4B | 3 | 435.0B–460.0B | A 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher) may cut growth, though diversified markets help. |
| Viet Nam | 192.8B | 5 | 205.0B–230.0B | A 46% U.S. tariff could significantly impact manufacturing exports to the U.S. |
| Singapore | 118.5B | 11 | 175.0B–185.0B | A 10% U.S. tariff may reduce growth, but intra-Asian trade offers some stability. |
| Indonesia | 115.2B | 12 | 175.0B–185.0B | A 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher) may lower resource-driven export growth. |
| Malaysia | 127.9B | 16 | 120.0B–130.0B | A 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher) may impact electronics exports. |
| United Kingdom | -140.1B | 24 | 95.0B–100.0B | A 10% U.S. tariff and global slowdown may slightly reduce post-Brexit recovery. |
| Thailand | 44.5B | 25 | 85.0B–95.0B | High U.S. tariffs may impact tourism and agricultural exports. |
| Philippines | 5.4B | 30 | 80.0B–85.0B | A 10% U.S. tariff may slightly reduce growth in services and remittances. |
| Cambodia | 12.2B | 53 | 20.0B–23.0B | A 49% U.S. tariff could severely impact low-cost manufacturing exports. |
| Myanmar | -10.6B | 82 | 4.0B–5.0B | A 44% U.S. tariff may halve growth, worsening challenges from instability. |
| Brunei Darussalam | 4.5B | 119 | 2.3B–2.5B | A 10% U.S. tariff may slightly reduce energy-driven export growth. |
Speed Ranking: Annual Trade Volume Growth Rates (in Percentage)
| Country | Growth Rate 2019–2024 | Rank 2024–2029 | Forecasted Growth Rate 2024–2029 (Revised) | Insights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambodia | 6% | 8 | 6%–7% | A 49% U.S. tariff may significantly slow manufacturing-driven growth. |
| Philippines | 5% | 15 | 6% | A 10% U.S. tariff may slightly slow services and remittance-driven growth. |
| India | 5% | 17 | 6%–6.5% | A 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher) may reduce growth across sectors. |
| Indonesia | 5% | 25 | 6%–6.5% | A 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher) may slow export-led growth. |
| Viet Nam | 6% | 29 | 4%–5% | A 46% U.S. tariff may reduce manufacturing growth significantly. |
| Myanmar | -6% | 56 | 3%–4% | A 44% U.S. tariff may further slow recovery amid political challenges. |
| Malaysia | 5% | 70 | 3%–3.5% | A 10% U.S. tariff (potentially higher) may slow growth in a mature economy. |
| Singapore | 3% | 78 | 3%–3.5% | A 10% U.S. tariff may slow growth, despite its strategic trade position. |
| Thailand | 2% | 91 | 2%–2.5% | High U.S. tariffs may reduce growth in agriculture and tourism. |
| China with Air Freight | 3% | 109 | 2%–2.5% | A 54% U.S. tariff may slow growth, though high-value industries remain a focus. |
| Brunei Darussalam | 5% | 125 | 2%–2.5% | A 10% U.S. tariff may slow growth, constrained by a small economic base. |
| United Kingdom with Sea Freight | -2% | 153 | 2% | A 10% U.S. tariff may keep growth modest amid post-Brexit recovery. |
Notes on the Tables
- Absolute Growth (Scale Ranking) reflects the total increase in trade volume in billions of USD, highlighting a country’s overall contribution to global trade. Revised forecasts account for Trump’s tariffs starting April 2025.
- Growth Rate (Speed Ranking) shows the annual percentage increase, indicating the pace of trade expansion, particularly relevant for smaller economies. Adjustments reflect tariff impacts and potential global slowdown.
- The Rank 2024–2029 in both tables is based on the original forecasted performance but includes revised growth figures to reflect the new trade environment.
- These tables compare the trade trajectories of these countries, identifying leaders in scale (e.g., China, India) and speed (e.g., Cambodia, Philippines) as they head toward 2029, now adjusted for tariff-related disruptions. For businesses navigating these changes, SL Global Logistics offers comprehensive solutions, including land trucking for efficient regional transport.